◆PROBABILITY PROTOCOL
Independent research. Probability first. No locks.
Platform independent prediction market analysis
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Probability Protocol is selective by design. Every play must be supported by independent research and survive multiple rounds of stress testing. Some games may produce several plays, while others may produce none at all.
The goal is not to manufacture plays or fill a quota. The goal is to identify the strongest probability opportunities across the day's sporting events and pass when the evidence isn't strong enough.
HOW THIS WORKS
Probability is built first from independent evidence. Market prices are entered manually afterwards and never set a probability. Every modeled market is checked on both YES and NO.
Each phase tries to break the number a different way and keeps the least favorable result. PRESSURE TEST challenges the original probability, FAULT FINDER attacks it from another angle, and BREAK POINT is the strongest adversarial test. Candidates that fall below the survivor bar are eliminated immediately.
FINAL resolves every marginal into PLAY or PASS. A PLAY needs medium or high evidence and a sportsbook line that covers the cost.
Fair value is acceptable. Positive EV is a bonus, not a requirement. Medium confidence uses the conservative end of the supported probability range as the maximum price. High confidence may use the middle of the supported range. Low confidence does not qualify.
Backtest: moneylines matched real results; spreads and totals were near coin flips.